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Excel card count blackjack strategyBy Arnold Snyder By Kim Lee By Arnold Snyder A Comparison of the Red Seven, KO, and Hi-Lo Counts And How Blackjack Systems Are Best Compared By Arnold Snyder with computer sims by John Auston By Marvin L.
Master By Peter A.
Griffin By Arnold Snyder By Arnold Snyder By Dr.
And blackjack tips to Radar for editorial assistance on the new edition.
Its purpose is to help you work out your win rate, fluctuations, and optimal blackjack betting strategy in excel card count blackjack strategy six-deck game.
By this I mean that you understand the rules of the game sufficiently to play comfortably, correctly employing the available rule options.
This is not a primer.
Basic strategy decisions for the various hands have been known for some fifty years now.
Virtually all books on card counting—and there are dozens of legitimate card counting systems in publication—provide essentially the same basic strategy decisions.
Such a system would provide you with plus and minus values to apply to the various cards, with instructions on how to vary your bet and alter your playing decisions according to your count.
If you are not a card counter, the information in this book will be of little use to you.
If you are a card counter, the information herein will help you maximize your profits in the games available to you.
There are, in fact, dozens of rule options used in various casinos, and most books on card counting explain the most common variations available.
The information provided in this guide does not apply to "Spanish 21," Superfun 21," single-deck blackjack where "BJ Pays 6-to-5," Internet blackjack variations like "Pontoon" or "Blackjack Switch," etc.
In fact, the information presented here will be of no use to those who play in web casinos, even in traditional blackjack games, because web casinos reshuffle the cards between every round of play, and the information in these pages is all based on deck "penetration.
In other words, I assume that the user of this guide is a knowledgeable card counter.
I will not spend much ink within these pages explaining the basics.
I will recommend my own book,for any blackjack player who wants to employ a card hit must dealer blackjack system or use other professional methods of winning at blackjack, from the beginner level to the advanced professional player.
The purpose of click here book, Beat the 6-Deck Game, is to take a good card counter and turn him into a 6-deck expert.
If you play in games with various numbers of decks, then I advise you to invest in the other reports in this series, which cover 1-deck, 2-deck, 4-deck, 6-deck and 8-deck games.
The best way to comprehend the mathematics employed in this series is to read with a pocket calculator handy.
All of the charts and numbers may appear forbidding at first glance, but the math is easy if you follow along.
You will not have to perform any of the mathematics within these pages while you are playing at the tables.
The purpose of this book is to give you a clear understanding of how the various conditions you will find excel card count blackjack strategy the casino will mathematically affect your potential for winning—and how you must alter your attack on a game in order to beat it.
This is not done while playing.
In fact, I have made every attempt to thoroughly analyze all of the most common attacks—and many uncommon attacks—on the various games, so that game with hints will not have to do any math whatsoever if you prefer not to.
I have tried to explain the charts clearly enough that you will be able to understand them at a glance.
Please read the text carefully so that you can use the charts easily and accurately.
We know that the count is continually going up and down, and that sometimes the house has the edge, sometimes the player.
But to know exactly how much I expect to win or lose in a specific game, using some specific betting spread based on my count, I need more details.
That is, what are the frequencies of player advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.?
And what are thehendonmob pokerdb frequencies of house advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.?
A player advantage of 2% over the house may occur 3 or more times per hundred hands, or only 3 times or fewer!
In fact, many blackjack games are not beatable with any practical card counting strategy.
And in many beatable games, your edge over the house is so small that the inevitable bankroll fluctuations will spell doom for the player with limited funds.
These Beat the Deck guides will not teach you how to count cards.
But they will teach you how to choose games that can be beaten.
If I know how often the player advantages and disadvantages occur in a game, I can figure out how much of a betting spread I need to beat the game.
I can also figure out how much I should bet at each specific count in order to get the highest win rate I can obtain.
And I can use these frequencies to figure out a betting strategy for minimizing my bankroll fluctuations.
There are two ways to draw up a frequency distribution.
You can run a computer simulation of your system and then just look at the data the computer spits out.
Or, you can use a mathematical formula for deriving the precise data you seek.
There are arguments in favor of both methods.
In this book, and in all of my Beat the Deck reports, I have used a combination of these two methods.
My goal in these reports is to provide data that can be used by all card counters, not just card counters using some specific count system.
The advantages that occur in a casino blackjack game are about the same for all valid card counting systems.
Some of the "advanced" systems can squeak out a bit more of an edge over the house, and some of the simpler systems are slightly weaker, but the actual differences are relatively small.
The information presented in these Beat the Deck reports is for an "average" card counting system.
They will be highly accurate for a player using the Hi-Lo count from my book.
The more advanced Zen Count, also from Blackbelt in Blackjack, will be slightly stronger.
The Red Seven Count same book will be slightly weaker; but the charts will be pretty accurate for all of these systems, as well as most other popular counting systems, especially in helping you to choose games and estimate the betting strategies needed to maximize both your profits and your chance of survival.
Technically, we cannot answer the question, "How frequently will a card counter have a 2% advantage over the house?
One factor that simplifies our analysis is that most casinos in the U.
In other words, the player starts at a disadvantage of -0.
In fact, 90% of the traditional blackjack games in U.
If you're playing a game where blackjack get paid 6:5 or even money, you're playing a game with a much higher house edge.
So, for the sake excel card count blackjack strategy simplicity, all of the frequency distribution charts in this book assume that the house has a ½% advantage over atx c7 wsn blackjack schecter player off the top of the deck.
This is your standard Las Vegas 6-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17 and the player may double down on any two cards.
If the dealer his on soft 17, but the player may double down after splits, the starting advantage is about the same.
With late surrender allowed and resplitting of aces, with the dealer stands on soft 17, the house edge is only about 0.
If you find yourself playing in a 6-deck game where the rules are more or less favorable than -0.
It would be more accurate to develop a separate frequency distribution chart for each set of rules—but you would not find the final result to be far from the simplified method I am advising.
Because 6-deck games with starting advantages very different from —½% are rare, we will not bother analyzing them in more detail.
It is, of course, necessary for you to know how your count relates to your advantage.
If you use any of the counting systems from my book,which adjust the running count according to the True Edge method, then your true edge count minus the house advantage off the top is your advantage.
If you are using a card counting system from a book that does not clearly explain the value of each point increase, then I would advise you to seek out a more advanced text.
The system you are using may be valid, but if the author fails to provide you with a method for determining when you get an advantage, and how much of an excel card count blackjack strategy you get in percent as the count rises, then the book is just too elementary for a serious player.
With an unbalanced "running count" system, such as the simple Red Seven Count or Knock-Out Count, the values of each running count are constantly changing as the deck is depleted.
In analyzing the Red 7 system with frequency distributions, it is important to note that your "pivot" will always reflect a 1% positive change from your starting advantage.
With simplified systems like these, you can use the charts in these Beat the Deck guides to compare the potential profitability of the games available to you, and to get a handle on how deep the penetration you will need, the betting spread required, etc.
But to get really usable data on fluctuations, bankroll requirements, optimal betting strategies, etc.
Technically, you would need seven different frequency distributions to estimate your potential win rate in games where the number of players varies from one to seven.
The problem with drawing up "accurate" frequency distributions to cover all possible situations is that there are hundreds of possible situations and these situations are always in flux.
You might have five players at the table, with 75% 4½ decks dealt.
The very next shoe you might have three players at the table, with closer to 80% 4¾ decks penetration, etc.
The next shoe, with six players at the table, a new dealer comes on who deals more slowly, cuts the penetration to about 72%, delivering fewer hands per hour.
Imagine the possibilities, with anywhere from one to seven players at the table, link penetration between shoes, and the idiosyncrasies of various dealers.
All of the distributions presented in this guidebook assume you are alone at the table.
If you are not alone at the table, the distribution will still be fairly accurate, assuming you use all of the information available to you when making your betting and playing decisions.
It will be slightly more advantageous for you to sit at third base, or as close to third base as possible, as this will allow you to play your hands with more information based on the hit cards of players who must play before you.
As a rule, in all shoe games, when playing with other players at the table, always seek out situations in which you can see as many cards as possible prior to playing your hand.
Do not attempt to use the distributions in this guidebook to approximate your advantage in any game other than a 6-deck game.
Separate guides are available from the publisher for one-deck, two-deck, four-deck, and eight-deck games.
In a 6-deck game, if a dealer will not deal another round if more than three decks have been used, use the 50% penetration chart to analyze this game.
A six-deck game with less than three decks dealt out is generally a waste of time for card counters, so I have not bothered to analyze such games.
However, if you look at the pitiful returns on the typical 6-deck games with 50% dealt out, you can imagine what a waste of time it would be to attack a 6-deck game with lesser penetration.
Most 6-deck games should be analyzed with the 65% 4 decks and 75% 4½ decks dealt charts.
An 85% 5 decks dealt game is way better than an average profit opportunity.
Use the 85% chart only for dealers who deal down into the last deck prior to reshuffling.
Remember, 85% of six decks is 265 cards.
An 85%-penetration dealer would be one who would only shuffle when he had blackjack one deck or fewer cards undealt.
How often do you find a shoe dealer who would deal another round with less than a deck remaining in the shoe?
Such dealers are extremely rare, but they do exist.
Low stakes players are more likely to run into such situations.
If you do find yourself in such a situation, use the 85% chart to analyze your possibilities.
Reading the Frequency Distribution Charts All of the frequency distribution charts are set up identically to the chart on the facing page.
This tells us that the chart applies to a 6-deck game in which 75% of the cards 4½ decks are being dealt out between shuffles.
The first column, labeled Adv.
If the advantage has a minus sign such as -3.
With greater penetration 85%the player sometimes sees an advantage of up to 4.
The second column, labeled Hands, shows how many hands per 100 will occur with the advantage shown in the first Adv.
Example: In this 6-deck game with 75% 4½ decks dealt, a player advantage of 1% will occur about 4.
A house advantage of 1% will occur about 13 times per 100 hands.
Note that the house advantage of 1% occurs three times as often as the player advantage of 1%.
This is see more we assume the house has a ½% edge 0.
In a sense, the house gets a running start on the player.
Following these two columns, there are eight columns labeled Sys1, Sys2, and so on through Sys8.
These columns identify eight different betting systems in which the player is using a 1:2:4:8:16 betting spread.
Note that each of these columns has a list of numbers, all of which are 1, 2, 4, 8, or 16.
These numbers are the player bet size in this web page />In Sys1, for instance, we see that the player bets 1 unit whenever the Adv.
In all of the betting systems, the player is using a 1-to-16 spread.
The only difference in the systems is the advantage at which the player raises his bets from 2 to 16 units.
All of the charts in this report, and in all of the Beat the Deck reports, use this same format.
So before you go on to the explanation of the bottom portion of the chart, which provides the analyses of the different betting systems, look at the Sys1 through Sys8 betting strategies and be sure you understand how these betting systems differ from each other.
Now, on to the bottom portion of the chart.
In all of the examples shown in our sample chart, the player bets on all 100 hands.
If you flip forward a few pages, you will see numerous charts where the betting system Sys columns have zero 0 entries when there is a house advantage.
If your method of play is to not sit down, but to wander from table to table as you play, making your decisions to exit a game whenever your count indicates that the house edge has gone up to a point where you click to see more to place even a 1-unit bet, then you will use the chart s where the Sys columns show the zero 0 entries.
This is because the Sys8 player is waiting longer to raise his bets.
If this is a negative number, then blackjack tips down shows how many units the player can expect to lose per hand played over the long run.
In our sample chart, all of the examples are positive.
This is because the Sys6, 7 and 8 bettors are waiting too long to raise their bets.
Note that if we employ Sys2 for our betting strategy, we can expect to earn 2.
To get our win rate in dollars and cents, we simply multiply this number by our betting unit.
This is the normal fluctuation from your expected win, in units.
We can use this measure to estimate how much we should be betting in any given game, with any given betting strategy, based on the actual size of our bankroll.
Standard deviation is a commonly used statistical measure.
What does this mean?
It means that two-thirds of the times that you play for ten hours or more precisely 1000 hands under these conditions, your outcome will be read article one standard deviation of your expected win.
And 95% or 19 out of 20 of the times that you play 1000 hands under these conditions, you will be within two standard deviations of your expected win.
You will be within three standard deviations of your expected win 99+% of the time.
For a comprehensive discussion on standard deviation, see Blackbelt in Blackjack.
In our Sys2 example, this means that after 1000 hands, we would expect to be ahead by about 22.
And we are virtually assured of always being within three standard deviations 148.
Professional players use the standard deviation to calculate the best betting unit for their particular bankroll.
Using the charts in this report, you will begin to see patterns in the numbers.
For instance, every betting spread has an ideal point at which to raise your bet in order to maximize your expected unit win.
The more units you bet at positive advantages, the greater your expected win in units, but also, the greater the fluctuations and the bigger the bankroll needed to survive.
If you lower your top bet substantially in order to cut the flux, however, you may not be able to get a significant edge over the house.
The problem you face as a professional gambler is to balance the need to aggressively pursue return expected win on your investment dollars with the overriding need to protect your bankroll.
Using the charts in this book, you can quickly see what the return is with any betting strategy along with its associated risk.
You can also use these charts to compare profit opportunities when multiple games are available to you.
If one casino deals out only 65% of the cards between shuffles, while another deals out 75%, you will almost always find the game with deeper penetration to have greater profit potential.
This may not always be the case, however.
Many players are amazed at how severe normal fluctuations can be, even when they have the edge in their favor.
It is not uncommon for players who lose heavily in a casino to worry that the game may have been dishonest.
Or they may question the validity of the card counting system they are using, or even their own abilities in employing the system.
If you suffer inordinate losses on a trip, you can use the data in these charts to see if your losses fall within the realm of what a mathematician would consider "normal.
If you are competent with a spreadsheet type program like Excel, you could use it to do all of the math for you.
But it is not difficult to do it with a simple pocket calculator.
For players who would prefer not to do any math whatsoever, I have analyzed in the charts that follow most of the practical approaches a player might take to attempt to beat the various games.
Also contained in the Technical Appendix, for those who have a greater interest in the mathematics of blackjack, are explanations of how to figure out the standard deviation for any number of hands, using any bet spread.
The charts show standard deviation data for 100 hands, 1,000 hands, 10,000 hands, etc.
There is also a simple explanation of how to estimate the effects of playing multiple simultaneous hands.
Now, on to the charts.
Note: There are 44 pages of frequency distribution charts in the print version of this book.
The charts contain Arnold Snyder's comments on each betting approach.
These charts are not part of this online excerpt.
See the 2005 print version for the of blackjack 21 games or collection of charts.
Also, note that the frequency distribution charts for the 1- 2- 4- and 8-deck games are very different from each other and from the 6-deck charts, and each has its own Beat the Deck book.
You may double down on any two cards, including after splits, the dealer stands soft 17.
Using a sheet of article source paper, label the first column "Hands," and simply fill in the numbers from the Hands column from any of the "75% Dealt" charts in this report.
Leave it blank for now.
Label the third column "Total," and leave this blank also.
Label the fourth column "Adv.
Note that this is the first column in those charts.
The only difference here is that we should enter the numbers here in decimal format, rather than as percentages.
In our 75% charts, we show the advantage as -4.
Label the fifth and last column "Gain," and leave this blank for now also.
Finally, place multiplication signs between the Hands and Bet columns, and also between the Total and Adv.
And place equal signs between the Bet and Total columns, and also between the Adv.
See the example below.
We are now ready to fill in our betting system, then perform a couple of simple multiplication operations.
If you are familiar with computer spreadsheets, you can see that it would be very convenient to set up a template according to the above guidelines for analyzing betting systems and letting the computer do all the math.
But all you really need is a pocket calculator and a sheet of paper.
The math is simple once you have the chart set up.
In the second column, labeled "Bet," you enter your betting system.
Since, in this example, we are leaving the table if our Advantage falls click 1%, we enter a click to see more 0 in this column wherever the Adv.
We then enter a 2 unit bet for all Advantages from -1% .
Look at the numbers in the Bet column and see that you understand this process.
To get the numbers in the Total column, we simply perform the multiplication of the numbers in the Hands column and the numbers in the Bet column.
To get the numbers in the Gain column, we multiply the numbers in the Total column by the numbers in the Adv.
Finally, we add up all the numbers in the Total column and the Gain column.
here need to know how many hands per 100 the player is betting on.
If we add up the numbers in the Hands column, we see that they sum to 100.
The player using this betting system, however, is not betting when the advantage is against him by more than 1%.
So, we total up only the numbers from agree, perfect basic strategy blackjack card counting good column where the bet is greater than zero 0.
To calculate click the following article Average Bet per hand, divide the Total Units Bet by the total number of hands played: 341.
For example, your expected win after 225 hands played:.
Using the above methodology, you should be able to analyze virtually any count-based betting strategy using the frequency distribution data from the charts in this guide.
What if you estimate that the penetration in not quite 75%, but greater than 65%?
You can get a pretty close estimate of your expectation with 70% dealt if you look at the results for 65% and 75%, then calculate the midpoint.
If you estimate that in fact about 70% of the cards are being dealt out between shuffles, the midpoint between these win rates is 0.
After you find the midpoint, always round this number down.
The actual win rate is between 0.
You can use this same method of interpolating results for different levels of penetration for approximating your average bet, your win rate in units per hour, etc.
Standard Deviation in Card Counting To calculate your standard deviation for any free poker foxwoods online video of hands, this is how you do it:1.
First, add up the number of hands played at click of the different bet sizes.
Now, square each bet size, multiply the bets squared by their respective number of hands played then add up these products.
Now, take the square root of this number and multiply it by 1.
Finally, divide this number by the square root of the number of hands played per 100.
To find your standard deviation, in dollars, for any number of hands, multiply your standard deviation per hand times the square root of the number of hands.
Do not use this method, however, to estimate your standard deviation.
de acheter blackjack jeux, for instance, you play two hands of four units each at a specified true count, you would underestimate the standard deviation if you simply added the extra hands into your calculations.
This is due to the fact that simultaneous hands will have more of a tendency to have the same result, since they are both played vs.
If you instead estimated your standard deviation as if two 4-unit hands were a single 8-unit hand, you would overestimate the standard deviation.
The actual standard deviation would fall somewhere between these two results.
A simple way to estimate your standard deviation on two simultaneous hands is to simply estimate the standard deviation on one hand that is 75% of the total amount bet on both hands.
In the example above estimate your standard deviation on two 4-unit hands as if you were playing one 6-unit hand.
For three simultaneous hands, estimate your standard deviation as if you were playing one hand that is 60% of the total amount bet.
Again, click here is a simplification, but it will give you a good ballpark estimate.
Accuracy All of the frequency distributions, estimates of win rates, standard deviations, etc.
Even if we were blackjack chat run a billion-hand computer simulation to obtain a highly precise estimate for a specific counting system, it would not necessarily provide a better estimate of your expectations in a real-world casino.
Casino dealers vary their levels of penetration.
Different numbers of players at the table may affect the shuffle point, change the number of hands dealt per hour, etc.
And even the best card counters make errors in "rounding off" their count adjustments and they apply different amounts of betting and playing strategy "camouflage" as needed in the casinos where they play.
Use the data in these https://montanabuys.com/blackjack/joycasino-wikipedia.html to compare the profit opportunities in the games available to you, determine the betting spread you need to get a sufficient edge over the house, and estimate your bankroll requirements.
The top blackjack pros are not all mathematicians, but they all do understand the basic math and logic of the game.
If you study the concepts and the charts presented in this book, you will get a very good feel for the excel card count blackjack strategy of any 6-deck game you find.
If the penetration is poor, look for any possibilities of beating the game by leaving the table at negative advantages.
Consider the possibilities of getting a bigger spread by playing two or more hands at favorable counts.
A: There are many card counters, perhaps even a majority of them, who do not have professional aspirations, but play at moderate to high stakes in order to acquire casino comps.
These players are primarily interested in knowing how to reduce the house edge to a break-even point.
Also, there are many books on the market that poorly explain the betting spreads needed to beat various games.
Many amateur card counters believe that they can beat most games with a 1-to-4 spread.
The bigger this number, the better.
The % advantage might be good, but your hourly unit win may be too small to be worth your time.
Q: Do you have any guidelines for judging when the standard deviation is tolerable?
A: The primary guideline is your own personal bankroll.
Casino blackjack is a fairly high-risk investment for a card counter.
The "long run" often takes a long time coming.
A player who is trying to get an edge over the house in the neighborhood of 1% should look for a standard deviation where the expected win after 100 hours 10,000 agree blackjacks and fruit salads wiki shall is at least half of one standard deviation, and after 1000 hours 100,000 handsthe expected win is twice as much as one standard deviation.
In other words, when looking through the charts for a good betting strategy, I look at the unit wins for 100 hours and 1000 hours, compared to their S.
The greater the number of decks, and the worse the penetration, the more difficult it is for a game to meet these criteria.
A: In a case like this, the system winning more units per hour is betting more units per hour.
Arnold Snyder's Beat the X-Deck Game reports are available at.
Return to the For more information on card counting, return to © 2004-2005 Blackjack Forum Online, All Rights Reserved.
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